5G is rapidly becoming a part of our daily lives. As the communication equipment, major telecom operators, and handset manufacturers get closer to this next-generation technology, they are set to experience significant changes and innovations. Industry insiders suggest that the entry barrier for 5G is much higher than for 4G, making it highly reliant on technological advancements. This shift could reshape the landscape of smartphone manufacturers in the 5G era.
The journey toward 5G is unfolding steadily. Reporters noted that since early December, various 5G-related concepts have been gaining momentum. On December 8, China Telecom launched its 5G pilot in Lanzhou. Earlier, on December 2, during the World Internet Conference, Huawei and Qualcomm both announced their commercial timelines for 5G mobile devices.
From the 2G, 3G, and 4G eras, each upgrade in telecommunications has transformed people’s lives. Alongside these changes, industries such as equipment manufacturers and terminal vendors have evolved. As the “5G Change Society†horn sounds, the new generation of communication technologies—faster speeds, better access—has triggered what many call the “replacement surge.â€
Looking at the 5G industry chain, the upstream includes base stations, antennas, optical cables, chips, and RF components. The middle layer consists of major telecom operators, while end users interact directly with devices like smartphones. Lin Zhihong, deputy general manager of MediaTek's wireless communications division, mentioned that the 5G entry threshold is significantly higher than 4G, emphasizing its reliance on advanced technology, which may lead to a shift in the smartphone market.
As a fundamental carrier of communication capabilities, telecom operators play a crucial role. A representative from China Telecom told reporters that 5G pilots have already taken place in cities like Xi'an, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Lanzhou, with small-scale networks being tested. Although full commercial use of 5G is expected in three years, current popularity continues to grow.
On December 1st, the first standard for non-standalone 5G networking was frozen, and the system architecture and process standards for standalone (SA) 5G were finalized. These developments mark a critical step toward realizing the full potential of 5G.
Yang Guang, deputy director of the Institute of Wireless and Terminal Technology at China Mobile Research Institute, explained that for mobile communication operators, the ability to "manage the cloud" has become essential in the 5G era. From the terminal perspective, there are more connected devices beyond smartphones, including various sensors. In terms of infrastructure, 5G will extend connectivity beyond people to objects, and when combined with AI, it will generate vast amounts of data, unlocking greater value.
Operators like China Mobile are focusing on four key areas: key technology research, standardization, industry promotion, and ecological construction. Industry promotion involves upgrading the hardware capabilities of partner carriers, while ecological construction focuses on joint innovation and application development.
"The one who controls the standard controls the world." At this stage, the battle over 5G standards is central. Beyond companies like Qualcomm and Huawei, telecom operators also play a significant role. China Mobile led the 5G System Architecture (5GS) project, marking the first time a Chinese entity has taken the lead in designing a mobile network architecture.
As 5G becomes more widespread, the mobile phone industry will face challenges beyond what carriers can handle alone. Yang Guang noted that chip and terminal companies are closely tracking 5G standards. Compared to 4G and 3G, the timeline from standardization to product deployment has shortened. If the 2018 standard is met, commercial products could launch by 2019. However, the complexity of 5G upgrades remains a challenge.
The competition among mobile phone manufacturers for 5G technology is intense. In October, Qualcomm announced that it had implemented the first 5G data connection using the X50 baseband, achieving gigabit speeds via the 28GHz millimeter wave spectrum. It also expects 5G phones with Qualcomm technology to debut in the first half of 2019. On the Huawei side, CEO Xu Zhijun revealed that the company would launch a full-scale 5G network solution for large-scale commercial use in 2018, support global operators in deploying 5G networks, and introduce a 5G Kirin chip in 2019 alongside 5G smartphones.
"In the low-frequency test phase, average user speeds exceed one terabyte per second. In the future, we're still considering millimeter waves. Above 30 GHz, initial peak speeds could reach 14G or 15G," said Yang Guang. However, concerns about signal coverage, hardware costs, and reliability remain, posing challenges for hardware manufacturers.
Lin Chih-hung noted that 5G smartphones will be more expensive than in the 4G era. Some technical hurdles related to millimeter waves are still being addressed. From a market perspective, how quickly 5G adoption will take off is uncertain. Technically, fewer manufacturers will be able to enter the 5G space. Additionally, the cost of 5G is layered on top of 4G, meaning device prices may not be cheap. Once the technology matures, fast-moving companies could reshape the industry.
Currently, the benefits of 4G smartphones in mature markets are diminishing, and consumer replacement cycles are longer. 5G is expected to become a new driver for mobile phone upgrades. Each generation of communication technology brings new opportunities, but also comes with market risks.
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