In 2014, LTPS panel shipments accounted for only 56% of total investment capacity.

NPD DisplaySearch Shanghai Office, September 30, 2014 -- As panel makers, especially Chinese panel makers, actively invest in LTPS TFT LCD (low temperature polysilicon thin film transistor liquid crystal display panel) new factory to supply smart phone panels, many people have I began to worry that the LTPS TFT LCD will be oversupply, which will affect the overall supply chain of the smartphone panel. However, NPD DisplaySearch recently reported that although Chinese panel makers are looking to expand LTPS panel capacity, for some new manufacturers, the efficiency and yield of LTPS panel factory is a big problem to be solved at the same time as the capacity growth after the plant is built. .

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Compare NPD DisplaySearch's new LTPS capacity and LTPS panel demand forecasts mentioned in the Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report and the FPD Shipment and Forecast Report for the FPD Supply and Demand and Capital Expenditure Quarterly Report. In 2014, LTPS TFT LCD panel shipments accounted for only 56% of the input capacity. This also means that many existing LTPS panel manufacturers still have room for mass production improvement, efficiency improvement, product yield improvement and LTPS panel quality stability. NPD DisplaySearch organizes the five major directions for the development of the entire LTPS panel:

First, 2017 LTPS TFT LCD production capacity will reach 12.2 million square meters; a substantial increase of 66% compared with 2014.

Second, LTPS TFT LCD capacity utilization rate is generally 75%-85%.

Third, the demand for LTPS TFT LCD increased from 3.1 million square meters in 2014 to 6.4 million square meters in 2017.

4. In 2014, the shipment area of ​​LTPS panels only accounted for 56% of the actual input capacity. In 2015, the ratio increased to 60%. However, 2016 and 2017 will remain at 62%. This indicates that there is still a gap in the area conversion between LTPS panel capacity and shipment.

5. LTPS LCD panels will continue to face the competition of high-resolution amorphous silicon, Oxide and AMOLED panels.

2017 LTPS TFT LCD capacity will reach 12.2 million square meters; a substantial increase of 66% compared with 2014

First, in terms of capacity expansion of LTPS TFT LCD, according to the current established project and capacity planning, excluding the LTPS panel as an OLED backplane, the 2017 LTPS TFT LCD capacity will reach 12.2 million square meters; compared with 2014 The 7.3 million square meters has grown by 66%. Among them, the main new plants include Chinese panel makers such as Huaxing Optoelectronics (T3 Factory), BOE (5.5-generation line factory and Sixth generation line LTPS factory) and Xinli (new 4.5-generation line factory), etc., while LG Display is expanding its LTPS. Capacity. In addition, AUO's Kunshan Sixth Generation LTPS TFT LCD factory is expected to be available in 2016. Tianma also plans to build new LTPS panel factories in Shanghai and Wuhan.

According to the DisplaySearch FPD Quarterly Report for Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report, except for Samsung's LTPS capacity (since it is all used for AMOLED backplanes instead of LCDs), NPD DisplaySearch expects global LTPS TFT LCD capacity in 2014. It will reach 7.3 million square meters, which will be 9.1 million square meters in 2015, 10.4 million square meters in 2016 and 12.2 million square meters in 2017. The annual production capacity of the new LTPS panel factory will be 1.8 million square meters, 1.3 million square meters and 1.8 million square meters from 2015 to 2017. In other words, the total new capacity of LTPS TFT LCD will reach 4.9 million square meters from 2014 to 2017, which is 67% of the total capacity in 2014. In addition, NPD DisplaySearch has not included the project capacity of detailed construction and equipment purchase plans such as Tianma and Foxconn, and it can be seen that panel makers are very aggressive in capacity expansion.

LTPS TFT LCD capacity utilization is generally 75%-85%

Unlike amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFT LCDs, LTPS TFT factory capacity utilization is generally better than a-Si TFT due to the relatively complex smartphone technology and long process time (such as mask mask, IPS technology, laser annealing, etc.). The LCD factory is low. NPD DisplaySearch expects the average capacity utilization rate of global LTPS plants in 2014 to be only 76%. Among them, many new factories such as Tianma Xiamen 5.5-generation line factory and Japan JDI's sixth-generation line factory have not yet put all the production capacity into use. Although the global LTPS plant capacity in 2014 was 7.3 million square meters, the actual effective capacity was only 5.5 million square meters. NPD DisplaySearch predicts that once Japan's plant operations are mature and China's new LTPS plant has accumulated more experience, LTPS capacity utilization will gradually increase. In 2015, global LTPS capacity utilization rate will reach 80%, and will increase to 2016 and 2017. 85% (as shown in Table 1).

Table I, 2014-2017 global LTPS plant capacity and actual input (unit: million square meters)

LTPS TFT LCD panel demand area increased from 3.1 million square meters in 2014 to 6.4 million square meters in 2017

On the other hand, with the prevalence of high-resolution smartphones and the continued increase in the average size of smartphone screens (such as the iPhone 6 Plus 5.5” FHD), LTPS panel demand will continue to rise. In the NPD DisplaySearch global FPD shipments and forecast quarters In the Quarterly Worldwide FPD Shipment and Forecast Report, we forecast that LTPS TFT LCD panel demand will reach 6.4 million square meters in 2017 (see table below).

Table 2, 2014-2017 LTPS TFT LCD Demand Forecast and Capacity Conversion Ratio (Unit: Million Square Meters)

In 2014, LTPS panel shipments accounted for only 56% of actual production capacity, indicating that there is still a gap between LTPS panel production capacity and shipments.

By comparing the LTPS panel capacity and demand, we can see the following key points:

● LTPS TFT LCD smartphone panel requirements are mainly concentrated in several specifications, such as 300-350 ppi (pixels per inch), 400-450 ppi and 450-500 ppi. According to the NPD DisplaySearch study, the 300-350 ppi demand will gradually be replaced by 400-450 ppi. The demand area of ​​400-450 ppi segment products (such as 5.0" FHD, 1920x1080) will become the most demanding specification segment in LTPS panels in 2017. This expectation is extremely reasonable, since the iPhone 6 plus is FHD (Full HD) After the screen, more and more consumers will realize that the FHD screen is very suitable for smart phones, and it will not be outdated.

● Since the capacity utilization rate of LTPS TFT LCD is less than 90%, and the output area of ​​LTPS panel only accounts for 60% of the actual input capacity area, it can be seen that LTPS TFT LCD will gradually be in a situation of overcapacity.

● NPD DisplaySearch research shows that, as shown in Table 2, the 2014 LTPS panel shipment area only accounts for 56% of the actual input capacity. In 2015, the ratio increased to 60%. However, 2016 and 2017 will remain at 62%. This indicates that there is still a gap between the conversion between LTPS panel capacity and shipment.

● In the case of amorphous silicon (a-Si) panels (such as large-sized panels), the shipment area of ​​general amorphous silicon (a-Si) panels (such as large-sized panels) accounts for about 70% of the actual input capacity. Even higher. But the LTPS panel is relatively low. Therefore, we can conclude that LTPS TFT LCD will face two major problems in the next few years: 1. Over-investment leads to overcapacity; 2. Conversion efficiency of new capacity conversion to good product shipments is low. These two issues are likely to be more pronounced in the new LTPS capacity in mainland China, which is less experienced and requires a learning curve.

● Of course, China's panel makers, including Tianma, Huaxing Optoelectronics and BOE, do not believe that the expansion and yield are the problems that their new LTPS plant will face. However, based on the experience of Japan and Taiwan in the past, there are indeed many gaps in technology and process between LTPS and amorphous silicon. The biggest challenge will be how to improve the yield under the complicated LTPS manufacturing process, and thus increase the input capacity. The proportion of the area that can be shipped. From Japan to South Korea to Taiwan, the existing panel makers have spent many years improving the yield and capacity conversion rate, coupled with the continuous introduction of many new specifications and technologies into LTPS (eg high resolution, In-Cell Touch). , On Cell Touch, IPS wide viewing angle, high color saturation, etc.), even the well-produced LTPS panel factory often faces many process challenges; Apple iPhone 6 panel suppliers such as JDI, Sharp, LG Display and others are already panel makers that have matured LTPS for more than a decade but still face the yield challenge of the new iPhone 6 panel. How to shorten the learning curve of LTPS in China's panel manufacturers will be the key to the success of their LTPS investment.

LTPS LCD panel will continue to compete with high-resolution amorphous silicon, Oxide and AMOLED panels

NPD DisplaySearch believes that the following points will pose a threat to the demand for LTPS TFT LCD panels:

● The process and technology of amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFT LCD continues to challenge its limitations and continue to break through. For example, a-Si TFT LCDs are currently available for mass production of 300 ppi (eg 4.7” 1280x720) smartphone panels. Many panel manufacturers are actively developing processes using amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFT LCDs. Full HD (1920x1080) panel. The idea that a-Si (amorphous silicon) could not be more than 300 ppi years ago has been broken by advances in technology. Panel makers continue to challenge the technical limitations of a-Si. Compared with the long process time of LTPS, a-Si is undoubtedly the most cost-effective choice.

● Oxide, also known as indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO), is also actively expanding its market share in the smart phone field. Among them, Sharp is aggressively expanding the use of Oxide technology in smart handheld devices and producing it on the eighth-generation line with high capacity.

● Samsung Display also actively promoted that its AMOLED technology has a stronger picture color than LCD. Samsung Display AMOLED's overcapacity is huge, so it is actively looking for more external customers to consume capacity. In general, if the screen size is the same as the resolution of the smartphone panel, AMOLED is 10%-15% more expensive than the LCD panel (Premium). However, NPD DisplaySearch recently learned that Samsung Display is more flexible in adjusting its AMOLED panel premium, especially in the Chinese market, in order to expand the shipment of AMOLED panels.

● The largest user of the global LTPS panel is the Apple iPhone. However, except for the special LTPS specifications used by Apple, most of the LTPS TFT LCD panels are used by Chinese smartphone manufacturers. The adoption of "High Spec, Low Price" business strategy by Chinese smartphone manufacturers has caused panel makers to bear huge price cuts. The price reduction pressure on the LTPS panel may be greater because its average price is higher than the a-Si TFT LCD panel.

● Of course, there is a situation where LTPS panel demand will be higher than expected, which means that LTPS will surpass other panel technologies (such as a-Si, AMOLED and Oxide) and occupy more market share in the relatively stable and mature smartphone market. But this requires a significant increase in cost-effectiveness of LTPS technology. Because the biggest weakness of LTPS technology is that its cost is higher than TFT LCD. According to the NPD DisplaySearch Smartphone and Tablet Panel Cost Quarterly Report, the Quarterly Smartphone and Tablet PC TFT LCD Cost Report shows that the LTPS panel costs 10%-15% higher than the a-Si average with the same size, resolution and specifications. .

NPD DisplaySearch predicts that while Chinese panel makers are investing a large amount of capital in LTPS panel capacity expansion, the LTPS panel industry has oversupply, low capacity and shipment conversion efficiency, and other panel technologies such as a-Si, Oxide and OLED. Competition issues, while the issue of LTPS panel price cuts will continue to be a challenge for LTPS.

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