Elpida Times Decline and DRAM Opportunities

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of Trendforce, one month after Elpida filed for bankruptcy protection, the DRAM industry began to report consolidation news. Elpida also attempted to protect itself by spending money on financial restructuring and betting. Difficulties.

Jibang Technology believes that the DRAM industry has faced a decline in gross margins in recent years, and that the traditional PC industry has been affected by the erosion of mobile terminals such as tablet PCs and smart phones. The industrial environment has been deteriorating, and Elpida's products have long relied on PC DRAMs for a long time, and at the same time focused on operations. We prefer to focus on the spot market that is most affected by the fluctuations of the economy. Even if the process technology can compete with the first-tier manufacturers, then once it is faced with a bad economic situation, it will directly impact the revenue performance and lead to a decline in market share. Elpida will continue its development in the future. This is the focus of everyone’s attention. In addition to debt issues that must be resolved one by one, the attitude of the Japanese government has a more crucial impact. Elpida is also looking for any possibility of surviving in the market.

Jibang Science and Technology responded to the final results of the Elpida incident and proposed to obtain funds, reorganize its debts, sell plants, and suffer from short-term pains; declare bankruptcy, and soar the price, stating that Elpida will dispose of funds for Ruijing, and Hiroshima's transformation IC The design will be a way to promote the DRAM industry to move forward, with less impact on the industry.

Get fund debt restructuring

It is rumored that the Japanese government intends to invest in Elpida. The premise is that the domestic product line of DRAM and NANDFlash will be integrated. In addition, in order to attack the mobile terminal market, Hiroshima will reduce the proportion of standard memory and increase mobile memory. However, due to the shortage of NAND Flash technology, compared with Korean manufacturers, there is no further development in the MCP (Multi-Chip Packaging) field.

Therefore, Toshiba Semiconductor, which ranks No. 2 in NAND Flash revenue, does not rule out technical cooperation with Elpida under the leadership of the Japanese government. If it is successful, there will be MCP (Multi-Chip Packaging) products continuing to be highly intelligent in the future. The two major markets of mobile phones and tablet computers compete with Korean manufacturers in the field of mobile memory.

In the standard type of memory, only Remy is appointed as the main production force, accelerating into the 25-nanometer process. However, from the perspective of the supply and demand dynamics, although Ruijing alone supported the overall situation, the overall market condition of the standard memory still exceeded supply, and the pull-up effect on the average selling unit price of DRAM was limited. In respect of debt, Elpida may also negotiate with the bank delegation to convert debts into shares, and even reduce or deduct some of the debt. The overall probability of withdrawing from DRAM production is low, and the effect on the follow-up grain price increase will be minimal.

Short-term pains in selling plant

If the Japanese government only provides a degree of debt extension, Elpida's self-help still needs to continue. In the Hiroshima factory, following the consolidation of the panel industry by the Japanese government, it will now extend its reach into the domestic semiconductor industry, and is currently carrying out consolidation work with Renesas Electronics, Fujitsu, and Panasonic. Try to divide IC design and chip production into two major business units. In the future, a company named INCJ will be set up to conduct business-led IC design business. The production part will not be transferred to production at Elpida Hiroshima Plant, expecting to reduce its standard type. DRAM exposure.

At the same time, in order to solve financial problems, Elpida believes that the possibility of selling the Swiss Crystal or Hiroshima factory is not low. It is assumed that after the sale, it will inevitably face a period of technical transformation. At that time, the filming will be reduced. There will be time. It may take up to six months. From the aspect of supply and demand, in the second half of 2012, there will be an opportunity to shift to a balance between supply and demand. Manufacturers with strong technology transfer capabilities and standard DRAMs are expected to show profitable price trends.

Declaring bankruptcy prices soaring

As the Japanese government has not yet decided whether to save the Elpida, if the final resolution does not provide assistance, Elpida will completely withdraw from the market, then will include the film, including Rui Jing, a total of 165K will stop every month, global DRAM The production capacity will suddenly lose 12%, and the situation of oversupply will turn into short supply in the short term. The DRAM contract price will be seen at 2.35 US dollars, a growth rate of more than 100%. This is the spot market for shallow plate price movements. Since the inventory level is generally not high, Have a better chance to look at the $2.5 price point. In addition, Jibang Technology believes that if Jerdi will withdraw from the mobile memory layout, the biggest beneficiaries will be the Korean factory Hynix Semiconductor, which has both DRAM and NAND Flash production capacity. Its product line is complete and is second only to Samsung Semiconductor. The second-largest supplier to the market will share the existing market with American Micron Semiconductor.

Ruijing Semiconductor is undoubtedly the largest variability in the total DRAM capacity. Regardless of how the final Elpida incident ended, Korean, US, or even Taiwanese DRAM makers may consider Ruijing as the target. Jibang Technology estimates that assuming that Ruijing Yizhu will gradually update the existing Elpida technology to the preparation time of the new technology parent plant, it will have an empty window period of at least six months, not only lowering the utilization rate of the product, but also making the process good. The rate also needs time to gradually improve.

It is expected that the total annual production capacity of PCDRAM will generate a gap of at least 225K due to process conversion this year, which will drastically correct the current market conditions of DRAM oversupply, and directly shift the balance to supply and demand. If the industry chain continues to be doubtful about the survival of Elpida, it will be fierce. Responding, adding inventory weeks or repeating orders in order to avoid subsequent price surges, and in line with the seasonal demand for better sales in the second half of the year, PCDRAM prices will have the opportunity to rebound sharply.