VR will subvert all industries, how should we go now?
The VR trend has swept the world and gradually penetrated into various industries. After the arrival of VR in the first year, it unleashed unprecedented potential. HTC Vice President Bao Yongzhe even believes that it can subvert all industries within four years. So, what is the development process of VR? Where is the first wave of dividends? What is currently restricting the development of VR? What are the different policies that will be introduced by local governments to support the VR industry? In the VR industry, why is VR hardware investment outdated, and entrepreneurs involved in hardware will die soon? So where are the opportunities for entrepreneurship? With these questions, let's take a look at the dry goods at the VR/AR summit.
VR potential will subvert all industries in four years
According to Wall Street financial forecast, VR's market size will reach 110 billion US dollars in 2030, ranking second among all categories of smart devices. Looking back on past developments, PCs have penetrated into people's lives through 30 years of development, and their sales have been capped in 2010. In the past five years, smartphones have surpassed PC sales in the past 20 years. Since 2007, smartphones have reached a peak after nine years of development. It is expected that starting in 2016, VR will exceed the market size of mobile phones within 4 years. This shows that smart devices penetrate the market faster and faster. Bao Yongzhe, vice president of HTC Virtual Reality's new technology department, believes that all industries will be subverted by VR within 4 years, everyone is affected by VR, and all screens are associated with VR.
Many participants mentioned the importance of VR and thought that VR is definitely the next computing platform to change humans. Zhou Mingquan, director of the China Computer Society, director of the Virtual Reality and Visualization Technology Research Center of the Ministry of Education, and executive vice president of China Industrial Technology Innovation Strategy Alliance, said that the immersion, interactivity, imagination and intelligence of virtual reality allow us to enter the real world and The imaginary world then outputs a virtual world to meet any of our needs.
Zhou Mingquan said that the application of virtual reality is also a revolution of VR+ level. Just like the current Internet+, it can change all aspects of the world. Virtual reality technology can be found in virtual places. Li Bin, chief strategy officer of Aofei Entertainment, even said that VR/AR is a redefinition of pan-fun entertainment, which can link and eventually open up various fields of film and television, animation, games, consumption and so on.
What is the first wave of dividends in the development of VR?
Regarding the development status of the VR/AR industry, Jiang Guangzhi, a member of the Beijing Municipal Committee of Economic and Information Technology, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is doing relevant research and preliminary research on more than 100 VR/AR related companies, including providing chips, providing solutions, hardware and content. Wait, initially formed an industrial chain. Therefore, to build the VR/AR industry ecology as soon as possible, we can truly form a market, platform construction, standard creation, industry alliance organization, and promote industrial development. However, VR is still in the stage of incubation, but there is still a certain distance from the takeoff. Industrial development also requires chips, content, display and hardware revolutions.
Jinghao China founding partner Wan Haoji also believes that VR is still in its infancy, because the current VR equipment shipments are too small, the use time is not long, the content is not rich enough, VR is still a long distance from the real outbreak. In the budding period of the VR industry, VR is also mainly based on a scene of entertainment and user experience, in which games and videos are the main development directions, and there may be some commercialization in the fields of education, training, medical treatment, real estate, etc. opportunity.
Bao Yongzhe said that the first wave of dividends brought by VR or the first wave of consumers, the first wave of developers, the driving force of the first wave of technology is from the perfection of hardware. However, the skills of this group of content developers or content development will gradually spread, and will gradually produce qualitative changes, which can affect all industries. After the first wave of consumers got up, Bao Yongzhe thought that the next hot field might be VR live broadcast. For example, the first two days to talk about the hot Kobe retirement, you can now use VR live broadcast to let users feel the atmosphere of the scene. There is also a VR theater, HTC VIVE will soon launch something that will make you look like a cinema in the helmet, you can watch 2D movies, you can watch 3D movies, you can see panoramic movies. It is reported that HTC VIVE and Disney have cooperated to launch a full 3D film "Dance with the Forest". In addition, VR is also being used for scenic tours, car display experiences, home decorations, and so on. HTC has partnered with IKEA to allow consumers to use VR to design their own home.
Li Jie, senior vice president of Youku Tudou, said that in the survey conducted by Youku, video is the most anticipated VR use for users in the future. The most popular VR video content, such as science fiction films, European and American movies, war films, beauty videos, etc. Wait. From the perspective of development path, Li Jie believes that the future VR content will usher in three peaks. The contents of this year and next will be mainly games, live broadcasts, and panoramic short films within 15 minutes. Later, VR documentaries and panoramas will be launched. Long-form micro-movies and other content; and in the next few years, full-length long-term film and television content will appear. Based on this, Youku launched the "Combined Plan" to expand its VR distribution and content realization capabilities, accelerate the emergence of high-quality content and killer applications, while enriching the developer tools and SDK, promoting the VR playback engine, and doing VR content aggregation platform in the future.
In the current situation, what restricts the development of VR?
Regarding the current difficulties faced by VR, Li Qiang, vice president of LeTV's new technology research and development, believes that there are three aspects. The first is in terms of hardware, thermal performance, screen HD, helmet weight and other issues need to be constantly overcome and actively participate in the establishment of industry standards. The second is the system aspect, which needs to jointly overcome industry problems, such as improving algorithms, reducing delays, and innovating interaction methods. The third is content, free to open the cloud platform to content manufacturers, VR games and video content can quickly adapt SDK to enter LeTV.
Youku potato Li Jie said that, specifically, the current VR video challenges, first of all, the shooting equipment and technology is not perfect, good VR shooting equipment is very expensive, the use of technical requirements is very high, there are very few people in the industry who master VR shooting, The requirements for post-production costs and stitching effects are also very high. Secondly, because VR challenges the narrative mode and can only shoot in the end, even the director of Hollywood does not know how to shoot. In addition, a large amount of capital only focuses on display devices, which is a nightmare for content creators.
For Mango TV, which also uses the video platform, there are still many problems in video without lack of good IP and technology. Mango TV CTO Huang Dong said that the problem after Mango TV's attempt to create and produce VR content is that the production mode is very vague, the technology is not mature, and it cannot be scaled up. The main problem with the playback platform and technology is that the terminals such as mobile phones, card frames, all-in-ones, and hosts are too fragmented, the player products are messy, and the interactive experience is confusing and immature. Content and devices need to be advertised and spread.
Aofei Libin believes that from the perspective of pan-entertainment, the most important thing about VR at present is that talents are still scarce. Although everyone is not sitting still when technology is insufficient, the fundamental push still needs to get rid of the hard bones of technology.
VR hardware will open the melee mode entrepreneurs how to do?
With the entry of major manufacturers such as Samsung and Huawei, the battle for VR hardware has come to a new height. It is conceivable that most of the technology giants will join the battle for VR hardware this year. From the perspective of investment, Wan Haoji believes that the investment in VR hardware is outdated. This kind of investment has already passed, because the big players in the industry are pursuing coverage, and the future VR hardware field will be the scorched earth for big manufacturers. .
In addition, from the perspective of the VR helmet itself, it is mainly divided into relatively professional PC-class helmets, and the other is mobile VR. Wan Haoji believes that mobile VR will account for the majority of VR display hardware, because the professional-grade PC host is not everyone, and the mobile phone is a manpower. This also indicates that the future pattern is likely not to be the current HTC, Oculus, and Sony. There are still many bloody hurricanes.
In this case, VR hardware has almost no chance for new entrepreneurs, and the opportunity that most people see today is content. In terms of content, Wan Haoji believes that every game, video, and film has opportunities, because many big manufacturers do not necessarily keep up with the content level, and in turn give new budding companies, professional only VR content, VR games stand out In the future, maybe a few great companies.
Of course, in addition to content, the VR field lacks platform-type things, that is, how to bring content to the other side of the screen, there may be distributed content in the middle, and there are other various platform-assisted companies that can support it. There are many opportunities in the middle. In addition, there is also interaction. In the future, the interaction between mobile and VR, whether it is gesture recognition, various remote controllers or a new generation of interactive mode sounds, will be very important. Only interactive content can make VR content potential. Give full play to it.
In addition, Li Yinan of the barley illusion mentioned that the bubble of VR content entrepreneurship has emerged. The current level of VR content entrepreneurship and madness is like the group purchase and O2O of the year. VR content seems to be low threshold, easy to get started, but it is difficult to do well. From the results of group buying and O2O industry, the surviving companies have strong core competitiveness.
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